Country : Australia
Risk Analysis - Quantitative Techniques - Time Management - Cost Management - Assessment Answer 

Assessment Task:

1.  General To apply risk analysis quantitative techniques to projects
 2. Apply quantitative risk analysis using specialist software to create a cost model, and evaluate and analyze the results

Budget Report (using Monte Carlo Simulation)
NOTE: This is a formal project management document, not an academic assignment. Produce a Budget Report: The document is designed to be given the Project Sponsor for approval. The sponsor is not knowledgeable about the cost estimating process or Monte Carlo simulation. The report must strictly have has the following six sections (a-g):
a) Introduction (10 marks): e.g. executive summary (key results within the report), project scope, and any other relevant information. The appropriate context must be provided when describing the project, this includes background information on the organization, the intended goals/benefits of the project, and the project and product scope.
b) Recommended Baseline Budget (10 marks): Provide a baseline budget composed of 10- 30 cost variables (This is a deterministic estimate based on most likely value for each cost variable, excluding risk events and contingency). You must structure the budget in a manner consistent with industry best practices. Furthermore, you must explain the source of information used to produce the estimate for each item in the budget (i.e. suppliers, subcontractors, historical costs, etc.).

Sensitivity Analysis: based on the Tornado Chart, explain to the Sponsor how you will control and minimise the following:
1. Most sensitive cost variable 
2. Most sensitive risk event.

 

 The sponsor wants to understand MCS. To facilitate this, the sponsor has asked for:
1. Justification of Probability Distribution for Cost Variable (10 marks ): Explain and justify the selected values (minimum, most likely and maximum) in the probability distributions for one of the cost variables
2. Justification of Probability and Consequences of Risk Event : Explain and justify the selected values for minimum, a most likely and maximum consequence of one risk event (8 marks). Then justify the probability of occurrence for the same risk event.

 

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  • Posted on : October 21st, 2018
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