Assignment Task

Introduction

The main purpose of the PSMT is solving the issue and modelling the situationobserved the best model for the daily amount of COVID – 19 infection numbers and forecast the number of days. It will enforce the entire population to be affected if there is no action had been taken to combat the infection. This can be illustrated through application of mathematical concepts such as cumulative frequency and graph through using mathematical technology such as R² values and technology such as Demos and Excel.

Assumption and Considerations
Considerations

Observations
1. Because the infection of the whole Belgian population have been taken into account without any intervention against the coronavirus. Thus, data from the first case up to the date before the limitations are enforced must be considered. However, there is not enough details available to perform an investigation. An unambiguous trend to establish an acceptable pattern cannot be generated by limited data. Cases remain at the first two weeks, and restrictions are made on March 19th, there are 1541 cases when restrictions were implemented. For an exact solution, more data will be required at this point.
2. This data is received from Worldometer, a reliable statistics website.

Assumptions
1. Based on the reports, the data  only the diagnosed cases of infection and not all the cases of coronavirus. The restriction have been imposed by Belgium since March 19th, that is, about 28 days after the discovery of the first corona infection. Although, symptoms may not appear for up to two weeks, so people who are infected are not may not be able to perform testing right away. There are variety reasons why cases were low during the beginning of pandemic – due to people have not confirmed the seriousness of the virus, therefore refuse to test, medical lack of kits and asymptomatic cases. Thus, it would be appropriate to consider data values after two weeks, until March 31st  . 
2. Methodology
A variety of method will be created to enhance the solution. This will include:

Data and collecting:
Reliable sources from World Health Organisation on the number of cases of the COVID – 19.

The mathematical technology such as Excel will be required to indicate a modelled graph for the cumulative table and graph. Numerous types of function will be determined to compared and given which is the best and suitable for the graph.  

Modelling the cases:
The technology will be needed and used to create a trendline.R² closet to 1 should be reflected  the most suitable for the graph.
Solve the equation in the graph:
The formula of the trendline in the graph by using Demosto demonstrate how long it will take Belgium entire population given that x is the number of days and y is the number of cases.
Graph 1: Cumulative daily cases of coronavirus in Belgium

Graph1.JPG

As it can be seen in the data, to indicate which shape of the data best suits the chart such as exponential and quadratic trendline prediction. It can be seen clearly that the exponential shape is clearly the most suitable. The trend line of the coronavirus is at first at its lowest level, gradually increasing slowly, then accelerating to the highest level. The data demonstrates that the exponential model is a more preferable way of performing data. The R² value, a statistical measure of accuracy, and another indicator of which model is best suited for the data. The R² values for the exponential model - 0.9854 are almost less than 1, and both blue trend lines come together to generate an accurate exponential pattern. For testing the authenticity of the exponential model utilised in Excel and to forecast when the entire Belgian population would be infected, an exponential model was developed in the most automatic way.

Example: Initial 

Graph2.JPG

 

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  • Uploaded By : Alon 
  • Posted on : October 08th, 2018
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