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Subject Code : MBA642
Country : Australia
Assignment Task:

Task:

Lecture Objectives

 

• Perform activity duration estimation based on the use of probabilistic estimating techniques
• Construct the critical path for a project schedule network using forward and backward passes
• Identify activity float and the manner in which it is determined
• Understand the steps that can be employed to reduce the critical path

 

Workshop Activity

In groups of 3 or 4, using your smartphone or tablet, do a search on the Internet of the term “project scheduling”. Thousands of hits will be generated.

Examine a selection of these results and discuss with the class what common themes you found. Take the best features of these and write your own definition. Explain why it is the best version.

 

Duration Estimation – How?

Two primary means for developing duration estimates:
1. Deterministic models for activity durations where project tasks are fairly predictable (i.e. little variation in the activity completion time).
2. Mathematical models for where tasks are unpredictable, we may use to predict likely duration.

 

Experience
– If similar work, we can use past experience as a guide. This approach is relatively easy
– Main weakness is that it assumes what worked in the past will be relevant today.
– We must also be aware of the potential for using distorted or outdated information.

 

Expert opinion
– Intuitively this approach would seem to be useful.
– Potential weakness: an expert’s estimate of completion time may not necessarily be valid for non-experts doing the same activity.

Mathematical derivation
– Benefit: offers a more objective approach to activity duration estimation and avoids many of the problems that can be found in more subjective methods.
– This method involves developing duration probability based on a logical analysis of best-case, most likely case, and worst-case scenarios.

 

On your smart phone or tablet, use a search engine to find “how long does it take to build a house?”

In groups of 3 or 4, discuss your findings. What are some of the variables that impact on the time taken to build a house?

How might you go about planning for such a project?

Duration Estimation

To derive a reasonable probabilistic estimate for an activity’s duration, we need to identify three values:

1. The activity’s most likely duration
2. The activity’s most pessimistic  duration
3. The activity’s most optimistic duration

Workshop Activity

The following terms are commonly used in probability statistics when applied to Duration Estimation for projects:
• Mean
• Median
• Mode
• Standard deviation
• Normal distribution
• Standard deviation
• Variance
• Confidence interval
Divide into groups of 3 or 4 and select 2 terms and explain them to the rest of the class using simple examples. You can use internet searching for this task if that helps.

 

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  • Posted on : December 10th, 2018
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