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Please answer both questions: 

Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) guidelines Book 1, chapter 6 provides a loose guideline on incorporation of climate change information in deriving of design flood estimates. The approach uses a factor derived from the Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future temperature to modify the current IFD curves. 

IFD modified with the climate change factors can be used to derive peak flow using a rainfall based design event approach. An alternative approach would be to use a hydrologic model to generate a long sequence of flow using the downscaled precipitation (and potential evapotranspiration) inputs generated by GCMs under future climate scenarios. 

Conduct literature review of use of the hydrological model to analyse the changes in water availability (river flows) due to the climate change. Explain the method, primary assumptions and limitations. 

While a large portion of hydrologic research has been dedicated to assessing the changes in runoff and river flows due to the climate change, there have been relatively few studies that have directly applied long term flow simulation (continuous modelling using a hydrologic model) of flows to derive design flood estimates under future climate scenarios. 

Explain how you would derive design flood estimates (or derived flood frequency) using a continuous simulation approach under future climate scenario. What would be potential advantage and limitation of such approach, when compared to using the modified IFD curves (as suggested by the ARR)?

 

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  • Posted on : July 31st, 2018

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