Country : | Canada |
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Abstract
Existing theories predict that the rise of China will trigger a hegemonic transition and the current debate centers on whether or not the transition will be violent or peaceful. This debate largely sidesteps two questions that are central to understanding the future of international or der: how strong is the current Western hegemonic order and what is the likelihood that China can or will lead a successful counter-hegemonic challenge? We argue that the future of interna tional order is shaped not only by material power but also by the distribution of identity across the great powers. We develop a constructivist account of hegemonic transition that theorizes the role of the distribution of identity in international order. In our account, hegemonic orders de pend on a legitimating ideology that must be consistent with the distribution of identity at both the level of elites and masses. We map the distribution of identity across nine great powers and assess how this distribution supports the current Western neoliberal democratic hegemony. We conclude that China is unlikely to become the hegemon in the near-term. First, the present order is strongly supported by the distribution of identity in both Western states and rising powers like India and Brazil. Second, China is unlikely to join the present order and lead a transition from within because its authoritarian identity conflicts with the democratic ideology of the pre sent order. Finally, China is unlikely to lead a counter-hegemonic coalition of great powers be cause it will be difficult to build an appealing, universal ideology consistent with the identities of other great powers.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the editors of International Organization and two anony mous reviewers for comments that improved the paper. The paper benefitted from presenta tions at Dalhousie University, European University in St. Petersburg, Lehigh University, the London School of Economics, Princeton University, Queen’s University, and Università degli Studi di Trento. The authors would also like to thank all of the analysts that worked on the data used in the piece: Liang Ce, Benjamin Chan, Jian Ming, Marina Duque, Nanaho Hanada, Jarrod Hayes, Lim Kai Heng, Ki Hoon Michael Hur, Shivaji Kumar, Rebecca Oh, and Rachel Zeng Rui.
1. Identify the central thesis of the article
2. Summarize key arguments or concepts
3. Assess one strength and one weakness of the article
4. Pose two discussion questions
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