Subject Code : BUSA3015
Assignment Task

 

Exercise 1

For the purposes of this report, only consider the data from March 2011 to February 2020 as the sample of data that is available to you – that is, ignore any recent observations. This means that the first actual observation in your Excel file is from March 2011 and your last actual observation in your Excel file is from February 2020

1. The coefficient of time.

2. The t-statistic for the coefficient of time.

3. The p-value for the coefficient of time.

4. The value of the intercept.

5. The value of R2 .

6. The within-sample forecast for February 2020.

7. The out-of-sample forecast for March 2020.

8. The out-of-sample forecast for February 2021.

9. The standard error of the regression

10. The F Statistic (not the P-value!)

 

Exercise 2

For the model in Exercise 2, given that you have the actual data for the out-of-sample period (you considered the within-sample period to end in February 2020 – but you do have data for March 2020 and onwards) – discuss your forecasting method, your forecasts, and the business insights from these, using the following step

  • Attribution
  • Scope
  • Application
  • Analysis
  • Articulation of Issues
  • Critique
  • Position

You must use the above steps as sub-headings in your response. Failure to do so will result in a loss of marks

 

 

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